05/17/2012
Taking a brief overview of the TFT-LCD panel industry in 2009 – in 1Q09, downstream customers’ demand was sluggish after the financial downturn, panel production capacity was over-adjusted after panel makers suffered severe losses, and panel maker’s demand freeze led to a substantial gap in the supply chain of upstream components.
2009年TFT-LCD面板產業表現除了第一季下游客戶的需求仍處在一個受到金融海嘯衝擊後的谷底,面板產能在面板廠鉅額虧損的壓力下作了過度的修正,上游零組件供應鏈也連帶受到面板廠需求急凍出現了嚴重的斷裂,第二季下游客戶回補庫存的急單湧進,面板廠產能利用率急速拉升,但卻受限於上游供應鏈的斷裂,部分零組件供給受到限制,面板產能受到壓抑,第三季至第四季日系及台系面板廠產能又因為玻璃供給短缺而出現生產瓶頸,抵銷了面板可能出現的供過於求疑慮。
According to WitsView’s top 10 monitor brand survey, total monitor shipment reached 11.65 million units in November 2009, which is fairly flat compared to that of October.
2009/12/24-------研究機構集邦科技(DRAMeXchange)表示,12月下旬NAND Flash合約均價大致開平盤,但主流顆粒32Gb 以及16Gb MLC合約均價則小跌約1%到5%,由於一些下游客戶目前正處於耶誕假期,因此近期NAND Flash市場的採購買氣比較清淡,另外目前也處於年終結帳期,下游客戶為降低庫存水位,因此客戶在年底前的採購意願也比較低,故NAND Flash市場在年終觀望氣氛影響下,12月下旬合約價大致呈現持平及部份小跌的狀況。
2009/12/24--------With the recovering PC shipment at 2009, DRAM shortage had accelerated since August and reach at the peak in October. Some PC-OEMs even spent US$55, 1Gb for US$3.25 equivalent, for DDR2/2GB module from module houses at spot market.
2009/12/24-------2HDec NAND Flash average contract price basically remains flat while 32Gb/16Gb MLC average contract price slightly decline 1%-5% given the slower procurement momentum for some downstream clients during the Christmas vacation.
2009/12/22------由於消費型電腦機種DRAM搭載以4GB起跳,高階機種以6GB為主,明年下半年加上商業電腦換機潮,研究機構集邦科技(DRAMeXchange)估計,明年電腦平均搭載率成長近16%由2.52GB成長至2.92GB,下半年在電腦銷售旺季帶動下,DRAM將有可能出現大缺。但若電腦系統廠在明年第二季提早拉高庫存以因應下半年缺貨,將使第二季淡季需求增温,DRAM價格也有機會在明年第二季下跌幅度縮小。若此,DRAM廠明年全年維持獲利的機會將大增。
2009/12/17--- According to DRAMeXchange, 1Q10 NB shipment decline will merely down to below 10% compared with the 15%~20% historical pattern and 18% in 1Q09 given the positive impact by Chinese Year sales and new platform launch.(Intel’s Calpella& Netbook).