Archive - 2010

WitsView: TFT-LCD Industry Outlook In 2010

Taking a brief overview of the TFT-LCD panel industry in 2009 – in 1Q09, downstream customers’ demand was sluggish after the financial downturn, panel production capacity was over-adjusted after panel makers suffered severe losses, and panel maker’s demand freeze led to a substantial gap in the supply chain of upstream components.

WitsView:2010年TFT-LCD產業趨勢剖析

2009年TFT-LCD面板產業表現除了第一季下游客戶的需求仍處在一個受到金融海嘯衝擊後的谷底,面板產能在面板廠鉅額虧損的壓力下作了過度的修正,上游零組件供應鏈也連帶受到面板廠需求急凍出現了嚴重的斷裂,第二季下游客戶回補庫存的急單湧進,面板廠產能利用率急速拉升,但卻受限於上游供應鏈的斷裂,部分零組件供給受到限制,面板產能受到壓抑,第三季至第四季日系及台系面板廠產能又因為玻璃供給短缺而出現生產瓶頸,抵銷了面板可能出現的供過於求疑慮。

December 29th

WitsView: Brand Vendors’ Aggressive Stocking-up Stimulates Demand for LCD Monitors in Jan’10

According to WitsView’s top 10 monitor brand survey, total monitor shipment reached 11.65 million units in November 2009, which is fairly flat compared to that of October.

WitsView:品牌大廠積極備貨,元月份液晶監視器需求升溫

全球前十大液晶監視器品牌商出貨調查顯示,2009年11月份出貨總量約達1,165萬台,相較於10月份MoM表現幾乎持平。由於液晶監視器為價格敏感度相當高的商品,現階段多以降價來刺激市場需求成長,故零售價格上調空間不大。WitsView分析師林筱茹表示,12月份在面板價格強勢上漲的態勢下,品牌端開始出現備貨策略來因應明年第一季市場需求,造成短期內液晶監視器需求熱絡與供給吃緊的情形,也是11月出貨量下滑並未如預期的原因,但此波需求熱度可以延續多長的時間?可從明年2月的中國農曆新年銷售,以及代工廠商與終端通路庫存是否持續升高等等關鍵市場訊息來判斷需求的虛實。WitsView預期前十大液晶監視品牌商的出貨表現,雖然12月份受到年底庫存盤點的影響,MoM出貨量將下滑8%。

December 24th

年前觀望氣氛 12月下旬NAND Flash合約均價持平及部份小跌1%-5%

2009/12/24-------研究機構集邦科技(DRAMeXchange)表示,12月下旬NAND Flash合約均價大致開平盤,但主流顆粒32Gb 以及16Gb MLC合約均價則小跌約1%到5%,由於一些下游客戶目前正處於耶誕假期,因此近期NAND Flash市場的採購買氣比較清淡,另外目前也處於年終結帳期,下游客戶為降低庫存水位,因此客戶在年底前的採購意願也比較低,故NAND Flash市場在年終觀望氣氛影響下,12月下旬合約價大致呈現持平及部份小跌的狀況。

DRAMeXchange: Expected Shortage on DRAM in 2H10

2009/12/24--------With the recovering PC shipment at 2009, DRAM shortage had accelerated since August and reach at the peak in October. Some PC-OEMs even spent US$55, 1Gb for US$3.25 equivalent, for DDR2/2GB module from module houses at spot market.

Year-end hesitated view triggered the flat and 1%-5% slight average contract price decline for 2HDec.

2009/12/24-------2HDec NAND Flash average contract price basically remains flat while 32Gb/16Gb MLC average contract price slightly decline 1%-5% given the slower procurement momentum for some downstream clients during the Christmas vacation.

December 23rd

集邦: DRAM產業 2010下半年缺貨

2009/12/22------由於消費型電腦機種DRAM搭載以4GB起跳,高階機種以6GB為主,明年下半年加上商業電腦換機潮,研究機構集邦科技(DRAMeXchange)估計,明年電腦平均搭載率成長近16%由2.52GB成長至2.92GB,下半年在電腦銷售旺季帶動下,DRAM將有可能出現大缺。但若電腦系統廠在明年第二季提早拉高庫存以因應下半年缺貨,將使第二季淡季需求增温,DRAM價格也有機會在明年第二季下跌幅度縮小。若此,DRAM廠明年全年維持獲利的機會將大增。
 

December 18th

DRAMeXchange: Outperformed 4Q PC shipment bring the optimistic 1Q10 PC markets

    2009/12/17--- According to DRAMeXchange, 1Q10 NB shipment decline will merely down to below 10% compared with the 15%~20% historical pattern and 18% in 1Q09 given the positive impact by Chinese Year sales and new platform launch.(Intel’s Calpella& Netbook).